Events outside of Suozzi control work against him

                                                                     

Migrant assault on NYC police officers (from CNN)

 

When the special election campaign to fill the vacant Congressional 3rd district seat began in December, Democrat Tom Suozzi of Glen Cove seemed like the surefire winner.

Suozzi, a veteran elected official, seemed to be everywhere, talking about everything while his Republican-backed opponent, Nassau Legis. Mazi Pilip of Great Neck, was nowhere to be found. 

Since then, local incidents seem to be conspiring against Suozzi.

At the start, the shadow of  former 3rd District Rep. George Santos, a Republican expelled for lying and for alleged campaign finance fraud, cast a dark pall over the GOP.

In comparison, Suozzi was well known and mostly well-liked.

A former Glen Cove mayor and former Nassau County executive, Suozzi served six years as the 3rd District Congressman before deciding in 2022 against seeking re-election, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for governor.

Tom Suozzi

Nassau and State Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs' decision to nominate Suozzi for the Feb. 13 special election seemed a given. 

Nassau Republican Chairman Joseph Cairo chose Pilip, a registered Democrat from Great Neck who had won her county legislative seat by running on the Republican line. A Black Orthodox Jew, she had a potent backstory of being airlifted when she was 12 from Ethiopia to Israel as part of a rescue mission and then later serving in the paratrooper unit of the Israeli Defense Force.

Pilip seemed an appropriate choice after the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre of Israeli women, children and senior citizens galvanized Jewish voters on Long Island.

Mazi Pilip

But Suozzi has long been a strong supporter of Israel.  In fact, the Jewish Insider, a District of Columbia Jewish-oriented news outlet -- first reported his nomination to run for the 3rd District.

At the beginning of the campaign, Suozzi mocked Pilip's absence and said she was ducking questions and debate.

After weeks of being out of the spotlight, Pilip finally emerged with single campaign theme: Stop the illegal immigrant crisis at the Southern Border. 

It wasn't a surprise. Polls from the Siena College Research Institute have shown since August that 82 to 85 percent of New Yorkers consider illegal immigration to be serious problem.

An Emerson Poll on Jan. 18 came out showing Suozzi was three points ahead of Pilip in the race.*

Now insiders say the race is neck and neck.

So what happened?

A group of illegal migrants assaulted two cops in New York City, beating them onto the ground and kicking them in the head. Five migrants were arrested. Manhattan District attorney Alvin Bragg moved to have all but one released without bail and they apparently took a taxpayer-funded bus ride out of the state. (News reports never mention the name of the judge who released the migrants).

The incident caused outrage across the nation. It seemed every time television news came on, there was that video of migrants assaulting the police. Most every news outlet wrote and editorialized about the attack.

Suddenly Pilip's campaign grew legs. Her campaign endlessly aired a clip of Suozzi saying he had kicked ICE out of Nassau County, referring to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Suozzi countered that the border has been broken for years, that the United States needs to secure the border and that he supported closing the Southern Border at least temporarily to stop the flow of migrants.

Just when the immigrant police assault finally appeared to be fading from the news, on Sunday, an illegal migrant who says he is from Palestine allegedly stole a pro-Israel flag from the porch of a Hewlett home  and then allegedly pummeled the Jewish homeowner. A video caught the assault and the migrants' rude gesture as he carried off the pro-Israel flag.

Hewlett Homeowner fights with self-identified Palestinian migrant stealing his Pro-Isreal Flag (from ABC news, Youtube)

The suspect was charged with a hate crime. The video of the assault is all over conservative news outlets -- a week before the Feb. 13 special election.

Adding to its impact is the attack occurred in Hewlett, an affluent Jewish community in Nassau. It's not in the 3rd Congressional District but it is similar to affluent Jewish communities in Great Neck, Plainview and other neighborhoods in the 3rd.

 The Hewlett homeowner said one of his wife's relatives was killed in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

"This is happening because of open borders," the homeowner  said  according to the New York Post. "Before letting people in we need to see their backgrounds. We need to protect our country, our citizens, our taxpayers."

* Percentage difference corrected