Voters still not crazy for Hochul but definitely want more bail

                                                                            

Gov. Kathy Hochul

Going into this year's elections, Gov. Kathy Hochul is not as popular as headlines suggest while Nassau's Democratic state senators should be worried.

A Siena College Research Institute Poll this week found New York voters split over Hochul's support in in November.

Asked if Hochul, a Buffalo Democrat elevated to governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned in August, wins the June party primary and is the Democratic candidate for governor, 43 percent of voters statewide said they would vote for Hochul.

But 43 percent of voters statewide said they would prefer someone else. Another 14 percent were undecided.

And this is after Hochul has been in the news nearly daily for the  past seven months, mostly mandating masks for school children until this month.

The Siena poll also indicates a bleak outlook for Nassau's Democratic state senators if they don't modify radical revisions they supported to the state's criminal justice laws, summed up as "bail reform."

Albany's then-new progressive Democratic majority in 2019, including Long Island Democrats, eliminated bail for all but the most violent crimes; they denied judge's discretion to determine whether an accused lawbreaker is a danger to the community; they directed that names and addresses of victims and witnesses be released upon request to the alleged offender, who even could ask the court for permission to tour the home of the victim if the criminal act occurred there.

Bail is intended to ensure a defendant returns to court for trial or subsequent hearings. Critics worry that poor defendants will languish in jail because they cannot afford to post cash or a bond.

Voters didn't like bail reform but Nassau's fledgling Democratic senators were able to win re-election in November 2020 in large part because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Bail reform took effect in Jan. 2020. By March, officials had shut down the economy to try to stop the coronavirus spread and New Yorkers in November were more concerned about surviving than worrying about repeat lawbreakers being released within hours of their latest arrest.

Now the economy is chugging along again. Inflation and crime are soaring while serious coronavirus cases dwindle. And voters want bail back.

The Siena poll found that more than half of New York voters think bail reform has been bad for New York, 64 percent think bail reform has increased crime and eight out of ten voters want judges to have discretion in setting bail.

The numbers are worse in downstate suburbs, like Nassau: 65 percent of downstate suburban voters say bail reform has been bad for New York, 70 percent say it has led to increased crime and 87 percent say judges should have more discretion in setting bail.

Democrats make up nearly half of the 804 voters sampled in the poll between March 20 through March 24.

Of course, everyone could figure out that Democrats are in trouble after last November's election when a red wave, spurred in large part by anger over bail  reform, elected Republicans all over Long Island while booting out Democratic incumbents and shunning Democratic candidates.

Some analysts insist that bail reform has not contributed to the current crime wave rocking New York.

But statistics can be used to tell any story you want to tell

In Nassau, the police department has consistently reported that even as the number of crimes has increased, the number of offenders re-arrested after being released without bail has stayed around 11 percent.

New York state's re-arrest numbers are generally higher.

But The City.nyc took a closer look at New York City's statistics in January.

Progressive Democrats have maintained that supervised release of crime suspects, including ankle monitors, is better than bail because it keeps alleged offenders out of jail while discouraging new offenses.

By analyzing data compiled by the state Office of Court Administration and the state Division of Criminal Justice Services, the online news site found 23% of those freed on supervised release were re-arrested on felony charges from January 2020 through June 2021.

The City reported that the data showed that participants in supervised release are re-arrested at an even higher rate when misdemeanor rearrests are factored in: 41%.

Meanwhile, Hochul has proposed half-hearted reforms to the bail laws. Democratic moderates are talking about changes. But Democratic leaders in Albany so far have refused any revisions.