If the past foretells the future, incumbents are in trouble

                                                                          

Gov. Kathy Hochul at a news conference today

While pundits may focus on Gov. Kathy Hochul personal favorability ratings or voters' attitudes on mask mandates, the significant findings are in the back of today's Siena College Research Institute poll.

Results show that voters across New York hate bail reform, are anxious about rising crime and, most noteworthy, are very worried about inflation.

Inflation worries are more likely to sway the vote in November than a politician's personal favorability.

Remember when James Carville, a strategist for then president Bill Clinton, advised in the early 1990s:  "It's the economy, stupid."

Other than war, its always the economy; people vote their pocketbooks, whether they are angry over high taxes, scared by a crashing stock market, or frightened by rising inflation.

Siena reports that more than 9 in 10 voters across the state, from all parties,  say inflation is having a very serious or somewhat serious effect on the economy; 78 percent say they are feeling it in their own personal finances.

Whenever the economy sinks, incumbents get thrown out. regardless of party affiliation. 

More hair-raising news for incumbents: 91 percent of voters say crime is a serious problem in New York. 66 percent are worried about crime in their own communities.

And 65 percent of voters statewide say bail reform should be reformed to allow judges to have more discretion  "to keep dangerous criminals off the streets,"  Siena reports.

Bail reform was a hammer on Long Island last November, knocking out Democratic Nassau district Attorney candidate Todd Kaminsky and Democratic Suffolk District Attorney incumbent Tim Sini after Republicans pointed out that state Democrats approved the elimination of cash bail for all but the most violent crime suspects.

Democrat Hochul has shrugged off complaints about bail reform: "I will absolutely stand behind the fundamental premise on why we needed bail reform in the first place," Hochul said last month.

She dismissed concerns about rising crime when asked if she would rein in against Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg who had listed crimes he would not prosecute. "I cut him some slack," she said after meeting with the new Democratic prosecutor.

But Hochul apparently realized she had kicked a hornets nest among suburban voters when she proposed that all municipalities be required to allow a minimum of one apartment or "accessory dwelling unit" on a single family lot. She now says the idea needs more study.

Despite leading all Democrats contenders in June's gubernatorial party primary, Hochul is not making much headway in winning over voters statewide.

Her popularity inched up by one percentage point since the last month's Siena poll, even though she holds nearly daily press conferences or announcements.

Soon after she automatically became governor in late August, when Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned, 41 percent of voters statewide had a favorable opinion of the former lieutenant governor. That number moved up to 45 percent last month and is now at 46 percent.

Less than half of voters polled say she is doing an excellent or good job as governor; More people say she is doing a fair to poor job handling the pandemic (54 percent) than approve of her performance (44 percent) even though Hochul has been all about the pandemic every day.

Only 38 percent of independent voters, who often swing elections, say they would vote to elect Hochul in November.

Of course, all of this polling could be thrown out the window  if the United State gets into a war with Russia over the Ukraine.

Siena polled 803 registered voters in New York from Feb. 13 - 17.