Looking for hints of what voters will do on Nov. 2

From Siena College Research Institute Poll released Oct. 19,2021

                                                                       

 

With less than two weeks to go until county elections, most political observers are trying to read the minds of local voters to determine who will win and who will lose.

The two political parties have their own polls; even candidates may have splurged for their own polls. But they generally keep the results under wraps because if they reveal actual numbers, they have to release the entire poll.

No matter what the polls say, political leaders always take one of two positions;

To the public, they say their candidate is ahead.

To party foot soldiers,  political leaders say its a close race and their candidate could lose unless supporters keep knocking on doors, making calls, giving donations and greeting commuters at train stations in the early hours of the morning.

So what can be gleaned from national news?

Democratic President Joe Biden's approval ratings have fallen precipitously in national polls, particularly among independent voters. Will that have an impact on local races?

Gas prices are up; grocery store shelves are bare. Will angry shoppers and drivers transfer any of the blame to local incumbents?

Or consider the Siena College Research Institute poll released yesterday.

The Siena poll of New York voters is always interesting because of its back-of-the book numbers: the statistics that don't make the headlines.

While the poll focused on next year's governor race, here is an unexamined result:

Support for Joe Biden matches support for former Republican President Donald Trump among voters in New York's downstate suburbs -- the suburbs that are having local elections in less than two weeks.

The polls shows that 42 percent of downstate suburban voters have a favorable opinion of Biden while 51 percent hold unfavorable views of the president. At the same time, 42 percent of downstate suburban voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump while 53 percent have an unfavorable view.

What does that mean for Democrat Nassau County Executive Laura Curran or Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman on Nov. 2? Or for Nassau District Attorney candidates, Democrat Todd Kaminsky or Republican Anne Donnelly?

Who knows.

But note the numbers for former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who won re-election to a third term in 2018 by campaigning primarily on the platform that he wasn't Donald Trump.

Now more suburban voters like Trump than Cuomo: the poll shows 66 percent of downstate suburban voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Cuomo, who resigned in August amid allegations of sexual harrassment and the cover-up of covid nursing home deaths, while 28 percent have a favorable view of the former governor.

Although the Siena College poll in the past often asked voters for their opinions of local leaders, those questions were not included in the poll released yesterday. The poll was conducted Oct. 10-14 among 801 New York state registered voters.